The Leafs and Habs have now started the NHL season against each other 24 times. Tonight’s Leafs vs Habs opener at Scotiabank Arena extends the NHL record for the most season openers between any two franchises, and it isn’t close. The Canucks and Flames are next with 12 (Source: The Canadian Press). It’s also the seventh straight year these two have opened against each other, going back to 2020-21.
Heading into opener No. 24, Toronto holds the edge in these curtain-raisers at 14-8-1 (Source: NHL.com).
But tonight, history feels like the least important thing in the building. These two teams show up to Game 1 from opposite ends of the planet. Montreal is coming off a 106-point season and a trip to the Eastern Conference Final. Toronto is coming off a season so bad it won the draft lottery.
Full disclosure: I bleed blue and white. But I’ll give the Habs their due. Mostly.
Last Season: One Team Soared, One Team Sank
Let’s rip the bandage off.
The Leafs went 32-36-14. They finished last in the Atlantic and 28th in the NHL, and missed the playoffs for the first time since Auston Matthews arrived in 2016 (Source: ESPN). One year earlier, they’d won the division with 108 points. First to worst in twelve months.
Matthews tore his MCL on a knee-on-knee hit from Radko Gudas in March. He finished with 27 goals and 53 points in 60 games, the lowest totals of his career. William Nylander dragged the team as far as he could with 79 points in 65 games (Source: The Hockey Writers). It wasn’t enough.
Montreal, meanwhile, went 48-24-10 for 106 points, the franchise’s most wins since 2015 (Source: Bleacher Report). Then they won two Game 7s on the road, over Tampa Bay and Buffalo, before the eventual Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes ended their run in five games in the conference final (Source: The Canadian Press).
Credit where it’s due. Nick Suzuki put up 101 points. Cole Caufield scored 50 goals. Lane Hutson had 78 points from the back end. Ivan Demidov led all rookies with 62 points. Juraj Slafkovsky popped for 30 goals.
Caufield also won the Lady Byng as the league’s most gentlemanly player. Nothing strikes fear into a rival quite like a trophy for good manners.
Leafs vs Habs: Captain vs. Captain
The spotlight tonight is on the two guys wearing the C.
Nick Suzuki walks in with fresh hardware. He won the Selke Trophy as the NHL’s best defensive forward in a landslide, grabbing 151 first-place votes. He’s the first Hab to win it since Guy Carbonneau in 1992 (Source: Russian Machine Never Breaks). He did that while scoring 101 points and finishing plus-37. And he’s doing it on a $7.875 million cap hit, which might be the best contract in hockey right now.
I hate typing this, but as of today, Suzuki has a real claim to being the most complete centre in the division.
Auston Matthews is out to take that crown back. New GM John Chayka says the team’s internal skating data shows “this is the best he’s skated over the last five years” (Source: The Hockey News). Chayka says Matthews showed up to camp lighter and leaner after rehabbing the knee. Matthews himself says he feels “probably the best I’ve felt in a long time” (Source: Daily Faceoff).
Don’t forget what this guy is. In the last five seasons, he’s won a Hart Trophy and two Rocket Richards, including a 69-goal season. He owns the franchise goal record. And in February, he captained Team USA to Olympic gold (Source: TSN).
So which captain brings it this year? Suzuki is the safer bet. Matthews has the bigger ceiling. If that skating data is real, a healthy Matthews is the one player in this rivalry who can take over a game by himself.
The Leafs have won 10 straight home openers since he broke into the league (Source: NHL.com). I’m calling 11.
The Blockbuster: Marchenko In, Knies Out
On Monday, one day before the opener, Chayka pulled the trigger on a six-player deal with Columbus. It got done so close to the 5 p.m. roster deadline that Blue Jackets GM Don Waddell said the trade finished at 4:59 (Source: NHL.com).
- Leafs get: Kirill Marchenko, Miles Wood and Elvis Merzlikins
- Blue Jackets get: Matthew Knies, Steven Lorentz, Emil Andrae and a 2027 second-round pick
Marchenko is the real deal. He’s 26, shoots right, and led Columbus in goals three straight years, including 27 goals and 67 points last season. The Leafs immediately signed him to a six-year, $75 million extension that kicks in next season.
And yes, he’s in the lineup tonight. His work visa came through on game day, and he’s on the top line with Matthews and Jack Roslovic (Source: Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman).
The cost stings. Knies was one of ours: drafted by Toronto in 2021, 23 years old and fresh off a career-high 66 points. He admitted the timing caught him completely off guard. Chayka’s answer: “You’ve got to give up quality to get quality” (Source: NHL.com).
Trading a home-grown power forward 24 hours before puck drop tells you everything about this front office. It has zero attachment to the past.
Merzlikins won’t play for a while. He had off-season surgery and is looking at three to five months (Source: TSN).
Who’s In and Who’s Out in Toronto
This wasn’t a retool. It was a demolition.
The front office and bench:
- Out: GM Brad Treliving (fired March 30), head coach Craig Berube (fired May 13), and assistants Mike Van Ryn and Derek Lalonde
- In: GM John Chayka, Leafs legend Mats Sundin as senior executive adviser, head coach Jim Hiller, and assistants Daniel Alfredsson, John Gruden and Brad Werenka (Sources: NHL.com, The Hockey News)
Hiller is the 41st head coach in franchise history. He was a Leafs assistant from 2015 to 2019 and went 93-58-24 as head coach in Los Angeles (Source: The Canadian Press).
Two days after Chayka and Sundin were hired, the Leafs won the draft lottery (Source: NHL.com). Mats, you can stay forever.
The roster:
- In: Gavin McKenna (No. 1 pick), Kirill Marchenko, Sergei Bobrovsky, Darren Raddysh, Nick Paul, Jack Roslovic, Colton Sissons, Teddy Blueger, Brandon Duhaime, Zack MacEwen, Miles Wood and Elvis Merzlikins
- Out: Matthew Knies, Joseph Woll, Simon Benoit, Steven Lorentz, Emil Andrae and Brandon Carlo
Raddysh and Paul both came over from Tampa Bay. Roslovic scored 21 goals in Edmonton last season (Source: NHL.com). And Andrae managed to arrive in the Woll trade and leave in the Knies trade in the same summer.
The New Era: Gavin McKenna
The biggest story tonight might be an 18-year-old. Gavin McKenna, the first overall pick, is expected to make his NHL debut on the second line with John Tavares and William Nylander.
Chayka says McKenna looked good in camp and the preseason and is “a first overall pick for a reason,” while asking fans to be patient through the ups and downs (Source: Maple Leafs Hot Stove).
He’s the fresh start in human form. And he doesn’t get eased in: tomorrow night the Leafs host the Islanders and Matthew Schaefer (Source: NHL.com).
Habs: If It Ain’t Broke…
Montreal went the other way. After a season like that, why wouldn’t they?
Kent Hughes had a quiet summer, one The Hockey News described as almost completely silent. The moves were mostly about keeping the band together:
- An eight-year, $73.2 million extension for Ivan Demidov that starts in 2027-28 (Source: The Canadian Press)
- An extension for Jakub Dobes
- Four more years for Zachary Bolduc
- New deals for Alex Newhook and Florian Xhekaj
The one splash came on September 12, when they signed Chris Kreider to a one-year deal with a $2.15 million cap hit (Source: PuckPedia). Yes, that Chris Kreider, the guy who crashed into Carey Price in the 2014 conference final. Turns out forgiveness in Montreal costs about $2.15 million.
Now the flowers, because they’ve earned them. Look at this core:
- Nick Suzuki: $7.875 million
- Cole Caufield: $7.85 million
- Juraj Slafkovsky: $7.6 million
- Lane Hutson: $8.85 million
- Noah Dobson: $9.5 million, the highest-paid player on the team
(Source: Spotrac)
That core, plus Demidov, is signed through at least 2030 (Source: The Canadian Press). Montreal’s stars keep signing team-friendly deals. And a 35-year-old former 50-goal scorer just chose Montreal on a cheap one-year deal. You don’t do that unless you think you can win now.
Players want to be there. The vibe is immaculate, and it’s no accident. They didn’t need to trade for help. Their internal growth is the weapon.
One early speed bump: defenceman Kaiden Guhle is injured to start the year, and forward Oliver Kapanen is banged up too (Source: NHL.com).
Leafs vs Habs in Goal: Experience vs. the Future
Toronto is rolling out Sergei Bobrovsky tonight, with Anthony Stolarz backing up (Source: Hockey Patrol). Bobrovsky is a two-time Cup winner and two-time Vezina winner who signed a three-year, $21 million deal in July. But he’s 38, and he’s coming off a rough year in Florida: a .877 save percentage and 3.07 goals-against average as the Panthers missed the playoffs (Source: The Canadian Press).
Here’s my take. Bobrovsky is the starter on paper, but I don’t see him playing 60 games. With 84 games on the schedule and a back-to-back right out of the gate, I expect a load-managed split: Bobo for 30 to 35 starts, and Stolarz handling the rest. Stolarz started last year’s opener, and I think he’s the real 1A. If Merzlikins comes back healthy in the new year, he could grab a few late-season starts too.
Montreal made a tough call and sent Jacob Fowler to Laval. Jakub Dobes is the No. 1 after winning 29 games and backstopping last spring’s playoff run.
Samuel Montembeault won the backup job by stopping all 27 shots he faced in the preseason (Source: A Winning Habit). But his leash is short. He’s in the last year of his contract, he lost the net last season, and his name has been floating around in trade talk.
Fowler, meanwhile, went 9-6-2 with a .908 save percentage in 17 NHL games last season (Source: RDS). If Montembeault falters or gets moved, Fowler is the first call-up and slides right into the backup/1B role. He’s the future starter, and everybody knows it, probably including Montembeault.
The edge: Montreal has the younger tandem that’s already proven itself in the playoffs. Toronto has the higher ceiling if Bobrovsky finds his Florida form. Tonight, it’s a coin flip, and the oddsmakers agree: the betting line has these teams dead even (Source: The Associated Press).
Two Paths, One Fresh Start
Montreal barely touched the roster, and why would they? They have a young core on great contracts, a coach in Martin St. Louis the players buy into, and a destination vibe strong enough to land Kreider. Two NHL.com writers are even picking them to win the Stanley Cup (Source: CTV News). Good for them. It’s September.
Toronto burned it down to the studs. New GM, new coach, a Hall of Famer in the front office, a first overall pick, a top-line sniper acquired at 4:59 p.m., and a captain who feels better than he has in a long time.
Two teams. Two different paths. Two very different endings last spring. But tonight, both records read 0-0-0, with 84 games to go.
The Leafs are desperate to prove they’re fixed. The Habs are ready to prove they’re contenders. Puck drops at 7 p.m. ET (5 p.m. here in Edmonton) on Sportsnet.
Game on. Go Leafs Go.